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The Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services annually produces projections of health care spending for categories within the National Health Expenditure Accounts, which track health spending by source of funds (for example, private health insurance, Medicare, Medicaid), by type of service (hospital, physician, prescription drugs, etc.), and by sponsor (businesses, households, governments). The latest projections begin after the latest historical year (2012) and go through 2023.

The projections for 2013-2023 focus on an outlook for spending in which the scheduled Medicare physician payment rate updates under the Sustainable Growth Rate formula do not occur, including a reduction of approximately 21 percent effective April 1, 2015. Instead, physician fee schedule rates are assumed to grow zero percent in 2015 and 0.6 percent annually for 2016-2023, a method and rate consistent with the projected baseline scenario in the 2014 Medicare Trustees Report.