The Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services annually produces projections of health care spending for categories within the National Health Expenditure Accounts, which track health spending by source of funds (for example, private health insurance, Medicare, Medicaid), by type of service (hospital, physician, prescription drugs, etc.), and by sponsor (businesses, households, governments). The latest projections begin after the latest historical year (2011) and go through 2022.
Unless otherwise stated, the projections for 2012-2022 focus on an outlook for spending in which the scheduled Medicare physician payment rate updates under the Sustainable Growth Rate formula do not occur, including a 24.7 percent reduction as of January 1, 2014. Instead, an alternative scenario is employed, in which physician fee schedule rates are assumed to grow 0.7 percent annually from 2014 and beyond, a method and rate consistent with the 2013 Medicare Trustees Report. Other than the treatment of the Sustainable Growth Rate formula, all aspects of the projections presented here reflect current law.
- NHE Projections 2012-2022 [PDF, 1MB]
- NHE Historical and Projections 1965-2022 [ZIP, 24KB]
- Projections Methodology [PDF, 499KB]
- Accuracy analysis of the short-term (11-year) national health expenditure projections [PDF, 138KB]
- Analysis of Factors Leading to Changes in Projected 2019 National Health Expenditure Estimates: A Comparison of April 2010 Projections and September 2013 Projections [PDF, 525KB]
- Updated and Extended National Health Expenditure Projections, 2010-2019 (memorandum dated June 29, 2009; based on 2008-2018 NHE projection) [PDF, 63KB]
- Page last Modified: 11/20/2013 3:26 PM
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